Campaigner Richard Behal pickets the Dáil as TDs debate the future of the Lisbon Treaty last week

IT'S coming soon to a polling booth near you: Lisbon, the sequel – just when we thought it was safe and the result nine days ago was final. It's like one of those dodgy horror movies when, just before the credits roll, there is a final shot that makes it clear to the viewer that the nightmare isn't over; another instalment awaits.

And have no doubt there will be another Lisbon referendum in Ireland in 2009; the only questions surround when exactly it will be and the detail of what people will be voting on.

There will be extra assurances on issues such as abortion, neutrality, taxation etc, designed to assuage voter fears on those issues. But will it also include, as was suggested late last week, a change that allows every member state to retain its Commissioner?

"It's the most obvious one, the most tangible one," said one well-placed Irish source. However, there are conflicting legal opinions as to whether such a change would require all the national parliaments to re-ratify Lisbon. If it does, it won't happen.

"I wouldn't rule out other things coming out of the woodwork. But we're not in the driving seat on that. It will come down to negotiations," said the source.

'In or out?'

Whatever about the detail of what is put to the Irish people, there is little question that it will be a proxy referendum on whether or not Ireland's future lies within the EU – in the words of one close observer: "Are we in, or are we out?"

"It's virtually inevitable that the referendum will be fought along those lines," said one political source this weekend.

There is already huge nervousness across all the major political parties about the prospect of such a battle. The stakes will be enormous. With the economy heading for recessionary times, there are serious doubts about the outcome of such a referendum, even if the starkness of the choice is spelled out to the electorate.

The
prospects of a third 'no' vote (three strikes and we're out?) is so dreadful to contemplate for the poli-tical establishment that they almost can't bear to spell out what it will mean. "If you think we're in sackcloth and ashes now..." said one senior source, his voice trailing off.

Another observer is more precise. "There is no legal mechanism in place for a country to leave the EU, but a way will be found to do it. It could involve negotiating some kind of bi-lateral treaty, giving us a Norwegian type arrangement [involving economic co-operation but not membership]."

The loose ends that would need to be tied up are daunting. What, for example, would happen to our membership of the Euro?

Domestically, the political impact would be dynamite. It is impossible to see how the government could survive losing a second Lisbon referendum, given the inevitable consequences for our EU membership. A general election would be pretty much inevitable and it would be fought, exclusively, over Europe.

But against that there is a feeling in the 'yes' camp, although probably not at government level (at least not yet), that this is a battle that has to be fought. And it is better to do it sooner – when the political establishment is still united and the memories of how the EU has benefited Ireland are still reasonably fresh – rather than in 10 years' time.

That said, sooner does not necessarily mean next spring, as is being suggested. Ireland's EU partners would like to have Lisbon in place before next summer's Euro elections. But they will be mindful of what is best for getting the referendum passed in Ireland and open to persuasion if the Taoiseach says that a spring plebiscite is too soon. Autumn 2009 looks a more likely poll date at this point.

Support in refusal

Everything could, of course, change if the Czechs or the Cypriots do not ratify the Lisbon Treaty. If Ireland is joined in the refusenik camp, then renegotiation – so clearly ruled out by the other EU member states last week – might come back on the table. But that might not necessarily be a good thing for Ireland. "Then things could get ugly. If Lisbon is scuppered, things could get poisonous and it will be worse for us," claimed one source, saying that the finger of blame would be firmly pointed at Ireland.

For now though, the government's focus won't be on what might happen in Prague, Nicosia or in next year's re-run of the referendum, but on trying to secure the best possible deal in negotiations in Brussels. The more obtained, the better able the government will be to argue that it is justified in once again putting Lisbon to the people. But the resistance to reopening the deal agreed after seven torturous years of negotiation is such that any changes will be marginal.

Lisbon, the sequel, will be virtually identical to Lisbon I – but this time, in the eyes of our EU allies, it will be personal.