Brian Cowen: biggest-ever setback for FF

The local election results were a disaster for Fianna Fáil and the Greens – that's obvious. But what would happen if that vote were repeated in a general election? There has been much speculation and educated guesswork since the votes were counted. But we decided to answer that question definitively by analysing every single local electoral area in the country and totting up the votes from last Friday week and applying them to Dáil constituencies. No predictions, no taking account of, or being influenced by, the presence of big-name ministers or TDs and how likely they are to hold onto their seats – simply a straight mathematical exercise of applying how the country voted in the local elections to a general-election scenario.


The one compromise we have made is with regard to the votes of independents. Independents always poll better in local elections and often the independent vote can be scattered across a plethora of candidates. So unless there is an obvious Dáil candidate emerging from the independent vote – which is the case in some constituencies – the votes are adjusted to take account of likely dominance of the main parties come general election time.


The results of the exercise are startling, showing the government is on course to lose 35 seats, between Fianna Fáil, the Greens and independents, from the 2007 general election – by an enormous margin the biggest-ever electoral setback for a government.


Carlow-Kilkenny (5)


At 28% in Carlow and 26% in the more populous Kilkenny, Fianna Fáil is well down on the 48% of the vote it won two years ago and would struggle to hold two of its three seats. Mary White's half a quota of first-preference votes was enough of a start to get her elected to the Dáil, but with the Green vote virtually non-existent in Carlow and down to 3% in Kilkenny, her seat would be gone. At 18%-19%, Labour would easily win back the seat it lost two years ago. Fine Gael would certainly make one gain, with an outside chance of two.


Outcome: FG 2 (+1), FF 2 (-1), Labour 1 (+1), Greens 0 (-1)


Cavan-Monaghan (5)


With just 35% in Cavan and 29% in Monaghan, Fianna Fáil would certainly drop a seat, while Fine Gael, with 46% of the vote in Cavan and 30% in Monaghan, would definitely gain a seat. Sinn Féin's seat, despite a small drop in its vote in Monaghan, is rock-solid.


Outcome: FG 2 (+1), FF 2 (-1), Sinn Féin 1 (no change)


Clare (4)


The performance of independents, who polled a combined 24% of the vote, suggests there is a possibility of an independent TD being elected at the next general election. Is the unthinkable – just one Fianna Fáil seat in Clare – now thinkable? It's a possibility. But, although Fine Gael closed the large gap between itself and Fianna Fáil to just two percentage points in the local elections, at 34%, one of its two TDs could be vulnerable to a strong independent – one was elected in 2002. In a general election, the independent vote probably won't be as strong but if the local election result is replicated there will be an independent TD.


Outcome: Too tight to call but... FG 1 (-1), FF 2 (n/c), Independents 1 (+1)


Cork East (4)


Fianna Fáil's vote dropped sharply in this constituency to little more than half what it was in the last general election. The traditional two FF seats would be no more if that happens in the next general election. The one bright spot for Fianna Fáil is that the Fine Gael vote, while decent, may see the party struggle to win two seats. But with FF in the doldrums and no other serious challengers, a second seat is FG's for the taking. Labour, while falling short of the 20% needed to get a quota in a general election, should be fine to hold its one seat.


Outcome: FG 2 (+1), FF 1 (-1), Labour 1 (n/c)


Cork North-Central (4)


Fianna Fáil, with just under one quota in the constituency, would definitely lose one of its two TDs, Billy Kelleher or Noel O'Flynn. Labour with well over a quota would certainly hold its seat but would Fine Gael's 28% be enough to take a second seat? Given independents and 'others' secured 18% of the vote, the Socialist Party's Mick Barry could not be ruled out.


Outcome: FG 1 (n/c), FF 1 (-1), Labour 1 (n/c) Socialist Party 1 (+1)


Cork North-West (3)


Fianna Fáil's vote halved from the general election and the party now has just one quota in the constituency. Fine Gael's vote is up only a couple of points from the general election, but with Labour on 44% of a quota, its 40% of the vote should be enough to secure the extraordinary coup of a second seat.


Outcome: FG 2 (+1), FF 1 (-1)


Cork South-Central (5)


The collapse in Fianna Fáil's vote to just over 21% in this constituency means that one of the party's two deputies would almost certainly lose their seat. Fine Gael senator Jerry Buttimer would be the best placed to take the seat, bringing FG's total in the constituency to three. The Labour seat looks rock-solid.


Outcome: FG 3 (+1), FF 1 (-1), Labour 1 (n/c)


Cork South-West (3)


The locals confirm Fine Gael's hold on its two seats. Fianna Fáil at 29% (down from 42.6% in 2007) would hold its seat and Fine Gael with 42% would comfortably retain its two seats.


Outcome: FG 2 (n/c), FF 1 (n/c)


Donegal North -East (3)


Fianna Fáil would be under pressure to hold its two seats, with its support dropping to 36%, compared to Fine Gael's 28% and Sinn Féin's 12%. However, neither Fine Gael nor Sinn Féin has a realistic chance of making a gain with those figures. And stripping away the plethora of smaller candidates making up the remaining 24% – none of them looks a likely Dáil challenger – Fianna Fáil should have enough to make two quotas and hold its own.


Outcome: FG 1 (n/c), FF 2 (n/c)


Donegal South-West (3)


There is particular interest in this one given Pat The Cope Gallagher's election to Europe and the need for a by-election. Fianna Fáil could be in trouble with its share of the vote dropping below 30%, just a few points ahead of Fine Gael's 25%. However, Sinn Féin's vote stood still at 13%, suggesting Pearse Doherty won't make it. Furthermore, a large percentage of the vote, 23%, was hoovered up by a plethora of independents – some recent Fianna Fáil members – and none of them looks a realistic Dáil candidate. If that vote is excluded, Fianna Fáil is up at 38%, compared to FG's 32.5% and Sinn Féin's 17%. While 38% is well short of the 50% needed for two quotas, Fine Gael has only 1.3 quotas and Sinn Féin has only two-thirds of a quota. On that basis, Fianna Fáil might just hang onto its two, although without 'The Cope' on the ticket, there is certainly a doubt about this one.


Outcome: FG 1 (n/c), FF 2 (n/c)


Dublin Central (4)


A Fianna Fáil seat loss would be inevitable as the party vote in the constituency has almost halved since two years ago. With 23% of the vote, it would win one seat, Mary Fitzpatrick looking the most likely candidate. Labour's Joe Costello at 22.5% would be elected on the first count but there isn't enough for a second Labour seat. New TD Maureen O'Sullivan would also be comfortably returned as independents are at 22% (although a portion of this is independent FF). Paschal Donohoe's achievement in coming second in the by-election is further demonstrated by Fine Gael's modest enough vote of 11% in the locals in the constituency – just ahead of Sinn Féin. With both Fine Gael and Sinn Féin on little more than half a quota, transfers from Labour and O'Donoghue's high-profile and work rate should secure a seat for FG.


Outcome: 1 FG (+1), 1 FF (-1), 1 Labour (n/c), 1 Independent (n/c)


Dublin Mid-West (4)


Fianna Fáil should hang onto its one seat despite having less than a quota. At 28%, Fine Gael would definitely gain at least one seat, while Labour at 19% would comfortably hold its one. The Greens at 4.5% would lose the seat held by Paul Gogarty. Sinn Féin didn't win a seat with half a quota last time and so at 10.4%, it wouldn't gain. Independents got 20% of the vote here in the locals but with no obvious Dáil candidate from that bunch, Fine Gael looks most likely to pick up the fourth seat, particularly given the 4,146 votes garnered by former independent Derek Keating.


Outcome: FG 2 (+2), FF 1 (n/c), Labour 1 (n/c), Greens 0 (-1), PDs 0 (-1)


Dublin North (4)


Fianna Fáil's vote collapsed here from 42% in the general election to 14%. If the 23% independent vote is excluded on the basis that there isn't a likely Dáil candidate among their ranks, FF would get one seat but would lose one. At 19.6%, there is unlikely to be an FG gain but Labour at 27.6% (36% if independents are excluded) would not only make a gain but could, with the right candidates, win two seats, as it would have done in 1992 when it had 1.7 quotas but ran only one candidate. At 8.7%, the Greens' Trevor Sargent would be surely doomed, while the Socialist Party would be in the shake-up for the final seat.


Outcome: FG 1 (n/c), FF 1 (-1), Labour 2 (+2)


Dublin North-Central (3)


There was another FF collapse here with support dropping to below 20%, less than half 2007 levels, but that is not much shy of a quota and Seán Haughey might just hang onto his seat. Fine Gael's 18% is not very impressive but Richard Bruton should hold his seat. However, Labour at over 20% looks in line to make a gain. Independent TD Damian O'Farrell, Finian McGrath's ally, got a huge vote nine days ago (4,194), which shows McGrath is very much in the hunt but he is vulnerable to a Labour surge.


Outcome: FG 1 (n/c), FF 1 (n/c), Labour 1 (+1), Independent 0 (-1)


Dublin North -East (3)


At over 30%, Labour is on course to match its performance here in the Spring Tide election of '92, but with only three seats available now, there probably won't be a second seat this time. Both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are hovering around the 20% mark, suggesting each would hold its one seat. There is no chance of FF regaining its second seat. Despite having two massive local election vote-getters in the constituency – Larry O'Toole and Killian Forde – Sinn Féin remains well short of the support necessary to win a seat.


Outcome: FG 1 (n/c), FF 1 (n/c), Labour 1 (n/c)


Dublin North West (3)


FF had a meltdown here, dropping from almost 50% in 2007 to just 16% nine days ago. That leaves it neck-and-neck with FG in the constituency and if this were repeated in a general election, both the party's seats could go. Labour's Róisín Shortall would have over 1.2 quotas, while Sinn Féin's Dessie Ellis would take the second seat. The final seat would be between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, and Shortall's transfers could, improbably, elect the Fine Gael candidate.


Outcome: FG 1 (+1), FF 0 (-2), Labour 1 (n/c), SF 1 (+1)


Dublin South (5)


Another seat loss looks inevitable for Fianna Fáil here with just 20% of the vote. Fine Gael, at 35%, underperformed George Lee and has only two quotas. But when 'others' are excluded, it might have enough to take three seats. Labour at 21% is guaranteed a seat. Green minister Eamon Ryan would lose his seat with the Greens at just 6%.


Outcome: FG 3 (+1*), FF 1 (-1*), Labour 1 (+1), Greens 0 (-1)


* from 2007 General Election


Dublin South-Central (5)


This was a disaster zone for FF with its vote slipping to a miserable 13%. One of its two TDs would certainly go at that level of support, though it would hold one seat. FG looks good to hold a seat at 14.5% but no more than that – it's pretty much where it was in 2007, as is Sinn Féin. Aengus Ó Snodaigh just held on the last time but at 11%, he should just squeeze home. The big winner would be Labour, which took a third of the votes in the constituency nine days ago. At that level a second seat is guaranteed.


Outcome: FG 1 (n/c), FF 1 (-1), Labour 2 (+1), Sinn Féin 1 (n/c)


Dublin South -East (4)


Environment minister John Gormley would certainly lose his seat based on the Greens' 6% vote in the constituency last Friday week. Fianna Fáil, at 17%, would just about hold its seat. Labour with 34% of the vote would be well-placed to gain a second seat, with the help of transfers from Fine Gael which, at 26%, would comfortably hold its seat. If FG can get a high-profile second candidate, it might win the second seat at Labour's expense.


Outcome: FG 1 (n/c), FF 1 (n/c), Labour 2 (+1), Greens 0 (-1)


Dublin South West (4)


Could FF end up with no seats here? Unthinkable? Maybe not. According to the local election results, the party is at just 15%, with three-quarters of a quota and depending on transfers for a seat. Sinn Féin is at 17% and could regain the seat it lost two years ago. Labour at 31% has over one-and-a-half quotas and has a chance of two seats. Fine Gael's one seat is rock-solid at 21%.


Outcome: FG 1 (n/c), FF 1 (-1), Labour 1 (n/c), Sinn Féin 1 (+1)


Dublin West (4)


Increased from a three- to a four-seater, this looks the most predictable constituency in the country, with three TDs getting elected on the first count and the final TD probably getting in on the second. Based on last Friday week's vote, new MEP Joe Higgins of the Socialist Party would top the poll with 22.5%, closely followed by Labour (22%), Fine Gael (20%) and Fianna Fáil (18.5%).


Outcome: FG 1 (n/c), FF 1 (n/c), Labour 1 (n/c), Socialist Party 1 (+1)


Dun Laoghaire (4)


Despite having a cabinet minister (social and family affairs minister Mary Hanafin) and a junior minister (Barry Andrews, minister for children), support for Fianna Fáil has collapsed in Dun Laoghaire to 13% of the vote, with only one councillor elected. On this basis, the party would not have a quota to elect a TD in a constituency that has been reduced from five to four seats. Fine Gael has almost two quotas, while Labour has in excess of a quota to take a seat. Although it's hard to imagine Fianna Fáil not winning any seat here, the 5 June figures suggest that Richard Boyd Barrett of the People Before Profit Alliance (PBPA), has a marginally better chance of taking a seat than Fianna Fáil. In 2002, Fine Gael had 15% of the vote here but got no seats in the then five-seater.


Outcome: FG 2 (+1), FF 0 (-2) Labour 1 (n/c) Independents 1 (+1), Greens 0 (-1)


Galway East (4)


Fianna Fáil's support has dropped by almost a quota since 2007 so the party would lose a seat here. Fine Gael's support has increased to 41.5%, which would comfortably elect two TDs and possibly a third. There was a strong independent vote in the constituency, with Seán Canney topping the poll in Tuam. On the basis that no independent is viewed locally as a potential general election candidate, and that the independent vote would probably not be as strong in a general election, Fine Gael could take a third seat through Tom McHugh or Ciarán Cannon.


Outcome: FG 3 (+1), FF 1 (-1)


Galway West (5)


Fine Gael has almost two quotas here. Fianna Fáil's support has fallen and, although it is seen locally as unlikely, these figures suggest it would lose a seat. Labour's support remains high in Galway city and Michael D Higgins' seat is safe. With former PD councillors all doing remarkably well as independent candidates across the constituency, Noel Grealish is set to retain his seat.


Outcome: FG 2 (+1) ,FF 1 (-1), Labour 1 (n/c), Independent* 1 (+1)


* A former PD TD


Kerry North/West Limerick (3)


A constituency review sees Newcastle-West remain in Limerick while Abbeyfeale and Glin move out to the new Kerry North/West Limerick constituency. Fine Gael has a quota and Jimmy Deenihan would keep his seat. Fianna Fáil also has a 25% share of the vote and enough to keep its seat. Labour has a 23% share of the vote in Kerry North compared to Sinn Féin's 21%. That would leave a close battle between the likely candidates, Arthur Spring from Labour and Sinn Féin's Toireasa Ferris, for a seat, with Labour shading it based on the 5 June figures.


Outcome: FG 1 (n/c), FF 1 (n/c), Labour 1 (+1) SF 0 (–1)


Kerry South (3)


There are three seats in this constituency but as the ceann comhairle, John O'Donoghue, will be automatically re-elected, it is effectively a two-seater. While the constituency commission review slightly increased the size of this constituency in 2007, it will remain largely the same. Going on the local election results, Fianna Fáil has a quota to elect a new TD, perhaps Senator Mark Daly. Fine Gael has enough local election support to re-elect Tom Sheahan. The share of the vote garnered by independents and others on June 5 was well below a quota but the chances of a Healy Rae taking a seat in a general election cannot be ruled out.


Outcome: FG 1 (n/c), FF 2 (+1), Independents 0 (-1)


Kildare North (4)


Fianna Fáil's Áine Brady or Michael Fitzpatrick would lose a seat as the party has only one quota. Fine Gael and Labour have over a quota each to re-elect Bernard Durkan and Emmet Stagg. Former TD Catherine Murphy's poll-topping performance in the Celbridge area suggest she could be set to return to the Dáil.


Outcome: FG 1 (n/c), FF 1 (-1), Labour 1 (n/c), Independents 1 (+1)


Kildare South (3)


Fianna Fáil's Seán Ó Fearghail or Sean Power would lose a seat here, as the party has only one quota. Fine Gael stands to gain a seat as it has a quota and, although Labour has just less than a quota, it should have enough support with transfers to hold onto a seat.


Outcome: FG 1 (+1), FF 1 (-1), Labour 1 (n/c)


Laois-Offaly (5)


Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael both have two quotas which would comfortably elect two TDs each. On 5 June the share of the vote won by independents and others suggests that an independent could be elected but there is no stand-out candidate that could win a seat in a general election. Fianna Fáil has upheld its support in Taoiseach Brian Cowen's back yard so it would probably hold its third seat.


Outcome: FG 2 (n/c), FF 3 (n/c)


Limerick City (4)


Limerick City is a new constituency since the constituency commission review in 2007 so it is far from certain which candidates would run. An analysis of the Limerick city council election results reveals Fianna Fáil would have only one quota. Fine Gael would have two quotas and should win two seats. Labour has enough support to secure a seat.


Outcome: FG 2 (n/c), FF 1 (-1), Labour 1 (n/c)


Limerick (3)


The 2007 constituency review means that some of the most westerly parts of the old Limerick West constituency, such as Abbeyfeale and Glin, have been lost to the new Kerry North/West Limerick constituency. Sitting Fianna Fáil TD John Cregan's Newcastle West base remains in the new three-seat Limerick constituency. An analysis of the Limerick county council election results suggests Fianna Fáil would lose a Dáil seat as it doesn't have two quotas. Fine Gael could secure two Dáil seats on the back of transfers as it has almost two quotas.


Outcome: FG 2 (+1), FF 1 (-1)


Longford Westmeath (4)


Although Labour has made little impact in Longford, the party's 21% of the vote in Westmeath is enough to elect a TD, especially as Mullingar is one of the party's strongholds outside Dublin. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have more than a quota each to elect a TD. Considering that this was one of the regions where Fianna Fáil did not take a drubbing, the party should hold its two seats.


Outcome: FG 1 (n/c), FF 2 (n/c), Labour 1 (n/c)


Louth (5)


Fianna Fáil's vote dropped dramatically from 42% in the 2007 general election to just 24% on 5 June. In a general election, this would mean the party would lose one of its two seats. Fine Gael's share of the vote on 5 June was 27%, 2% less than 2007. On these figures, Fergus O'Dowd would hold his seat and the party would also have a chance of winning another seat due to Louth's change from a four- to a five-seater. Sinn Féin's support has marginally increased so it would hold its seat. Labour garnered 11% of the vote in the local elections, which is a large increase on its 4.98% share in 2007. If this were reflected in a general election, one of the party's two local election poll-toppers in Drogheda, Gerald Nash or Paul Bell, would have a good chance of securing a seat.


Outcome: FG 2 (+1), FF 1 (-1), Labour 1 (+1), SF 1 (n/c)


Mayo (5)


Fianna Fáil got a 30% share of the vote in the local elections, enough to re-elect junior minister Dara Calleary and Beverley Flynn. Winning a huge 53.86% of the vote in 2007 as the county anticipated Mayo man Enda Kenny for Taoiseach, Kenny's Fine Gael won three of the five seats with Kenny, Michael Ring and newcomer John O'Mahony securing seats. The party's local election showing suggests the three of them could retain their seats.


Outcome: FG 3 (n/c), FF 2 (n/c)*


*Beverley Flynn was elected as Independent Fianna Fáil but rejoined the party shortly afterwards


Meath East (3)


A large drop in support for Fianna Fáil here could see the party lose one of its two seats. Fine Gael has a quota to re-elect Shane McEntee. If Fianna Fáil lost a seat, then Labour might capitalise as Eoin Holmes topped the poll in Slane on 5 June. Senator Dominic Hannigan also polled well here in 2007 so a Labour gain could not be ruled out.


Outcome: FG 1 (n/c), FF 1 (-1), Labour 1 (+1)


Meath West (3)


Dropping from the 50% of the vote that elected Fianna Fáil's Noel Dempsey and Johnny Brady in 2007, the party would lose a seat as it has only one quota. Fine Gael would retain its seat as it has a quota. It is an extremely marginal call as to who would get the third seat and this is a Fianna Fáil stronghold, but based on the local election results FG could pip FF for the third seat.


Outcome: FG 2 (+1), FF1 (-1)


Roscommon/Leitrim South (3)


Even though Fianna Fáil's vote fell here with high-profile casualties such as junior minister Michael Finneran's son Trevor, the party still has a quota to hold a Dáil seat. Even though independents and others took a large share of the vote, there is no stand-out independent candidate. As Fine Gael has a larger share of the vote than Fianna Fáil it looks likely to retain its two seats.


Outcome: FG 2 (n/c), FF1 (n/c)


Sligo/Leitrim North (3)


Fianna Fáil's support has fallen since 2007 across the constituency, and based on the local election results it would have only one quota so one of the two sitting TDs would lose their seat. Fine Gael is set to make a gain as it has almost two quotas needed to elect two TDs.


Outcome: FG 2 (+1), FF 1 (-1)


Tipperary North (3)


With a 31% share of the vote, Fianna Fáil has more than a quota to hold Maire Hoctor's seat. Fine Gael's 24% of the vote falls just short of a quota but Noel Coonan should keep his seat. Independent Michael Lowry's contention that he has more councillors than the Green party would also see him hold onto his seat.


Outcome: FG 1 (n/c), FF 1 (n/c), Independents 1 (n/c)


Tipperary South (3)


Fianna Fáil's share of the vote has fallen by almost 20% and it would have only one quota so it would lose a seat in this marginal constituency. Fine Gael's Tom Hayes would comfortably hold his seat. Former TD Séamus Healy topped the poll in Clonmel on 5 June as an independent and had more first-preference votes than any candidate in the constituency. The share of the vote won by independents and others almost amounted to a quota so Healy would regain the seat he lost in 2007.


Outcome: FG 1 (n/c), FF 1 (-1), Independents
1 (+1)


Waterford (4)


Analysis of the local election results for Waterford city and county councils on 5 June shows a marked drop in Fianna Fáil's share of the vote and the party would elect only one TD. Fine Gael's share has risen so it is on course to retain one seat and win another. Labour's share of the vote has also increased so the party would hold its seat.


Outcome: FG 2 (+1), FF 1 (-1), Labour 1 (n/c)


Wexford (5)


With 42% of the vote, Fianna Fáil's John Browne retained his seat and newcomer Seán Connick entered the Dáil for the first time in 2007. Fine Gael's 31% saw party chief whip Paul Kehoe retain his seat and Michael Darcy win a seat for the first time. Labour's Brendan Howlin won a seat on the back of his party's 13% share of the vote. Based on the 5 June results, Fine Gael would have two quotas and is certain to retain its two seats. Fianna Fáil would have only one quota and most of a second quota so it would hope to hold the party's two seats. Labour would hold its seat.


Outcome: FG 2 (n/c), FF 2 (n/c), Labour 1 (n/c)


Wicklow (5)


Fianna Fáil slumped to 22% on 5 June and this share of the vote would elect only one TD. Fine Gael would have almost two quotas so the party's two sitting TDs would be safe. Labour would have more than a quota to re-elect Liz McManus, and as independents garnered a 16% share of the vote on 5 June, former Fianna Fáil TD Joe Behan would have a good chance of retaining his seat as an independent.


Outcome: FG 2 (n/c), FF 1 (-1), Labour 1 (n/c), Independents 1 (+1)