So Alex Ferguson wants Arsenal to 'batter' Chelsea today. "Yes, that's the word. Batter." The gleeful fan-like fervour in his voice last week notwithstanding, Ferguson's wonder about the exact phrase to use was interesting. Because, in truth, when Arsenal excel they don't "batter" teams. They unravel them. It's Chelsea that do the battering.
The numbers say as much. And not just those which indicate Chelsea are capable of becoming the highest-scoring English team in half a century (see panel below), courtesy of hauls like seven against Sunderland, five against Blackburn, four against Bolton and Wolves as well as three against Arsenal and Spurs. There are also the stats behind those stunning victories. No side has exerted such control over the vast majority of their games. They enjoy an average possession of 62 per cent, easily the highest in the league having occasionally hit over 70 per cent. That's not far off where Barcelona have set the bar and, in real terms, it means when Chelsea are in full flow – which has proven often – very few sides can put up with their passing.
Above all though, most of those moves have an end product too, outlined by their far greater number of shots both on and off target than any other side in the division. Such pummellings also make goalkeepers work far more. And if they match their 3-0 win over Arsenal at the end of November, they will become the highest-scoring English side in a decade and second-highest in 46 years. More than battering, that's shock and awe.
And yet you'd understand most other sides – bar perhaps Sunderland – refusing to endure such negative emotions against Carlo Ancelotti's team. Despite such apparent dominance, they are very much a side – as today's opposing manager Arsene Wenger insisted – that look like they will drop points. Indeed, they've done so immediately after their most commanding displays of the season. As November turned to December, they overwhelmed Arsenal only to underwhelm against Manchester City. Then followed their most uncertain month of the season – dropping points in four of six games – straight after their most emphatic, winning all their matches in November including those against Manchester United and today's opponents.
So, as much as champions elect, they have come to define a peculiar season in another way: transforming from supreme to so-so not just from month to month or game to game, but seemingly half to half. Every time they've had an opportunity to really pull away from the pack, they've missed it.
What's worse is where. United and Arsenal – more understandingly but also a little worryingly – have dropped their points to teams in average positions of eighth and seventh respectively. For Chelsea it's 13th. Most recently the poor 1-1 draw at Hull. Who, after a jubilant January, would have expected that?
It's hard to tease out whether that's mere complacency or evidence of deeper cracks. The way things have progressed, this should be Chelsea's season to reclaim the championship but, having not yet embarked on a definitive charge when they've had the chance, there's a growing feeling a run by a resurgent United will undo them again.
How to explain such an enigma? Well, most obviously, there's the fact this is a brand new manager navigating a brand new country and league. Adaptation isn't going to be immediate. But that wasn't the case for either Guus Hiddink or Jose Mourinho, the latter's side a "level below" Ancelotti's according to an arrogant Ricardo Carvalho, who seemed to speak far too soon. Mourinho's Chelsea instantly espoused a sense of both authority and destiny Ancelotti's have only suggested so far.
Part of the problem might be style. Whereas Mourinho emphasised discipline allied to dynamism – greatly bolstered by his unshakeable belief of course – Ancelotti has attempted to perfect the aesthetics Roman Abramovich has for so long craved. Indeed, Chelsea's hierarchy were understood to be hugely impressed Ancelotti didn't abandon his principles for pragmatism during that difficult December as Felipe Scolari had done in such a panic exactly a year earlier. In fact, his midfield alterations in Didier Drogba's absence brought even more goals. So Scolari mark two he isn't, although that resolve will be tested depending on the prizes come the season's end.
For the moment though, it's safe to say that Ancelotti's ideal of effortless midfield interchanges has worked fluently 60 per cent of the time – 15 out of their 17 wins have been emphatic, although the victory over United oddly lacked vigour – but fallen strangely flat the rest. So they can go from Frank Lampard demanding more credit for their class one week to the same player admitting "a bad patch" the next.
As all of Pep Guardiola, Ferguson and Wenger will testify of course, generating such apparently easy fluency – regardless of the technical level of your players – actually takes a great deal of effort and Chelsea's intermittent lapses in such a short time are understandable.
Indeed, in contrast to Scolari, the players are said to have also been hugely energised by Ancelotti's recourse to the training ground in an attempt to instantly fix problems.
All that doesn't explain where and when they've exactly dropped points, even if it does indicate why they've saved their most robust, Mourinho-esque displays for United and Arsenal. But then it's not all down to Chelsea. Credit is due to the teams that have properly tested them. Wigan, Manchester United – in an admitted defeat – Birmingham and Hull have all shown the benefits of buffing up midfield and impeding their supply lines.
It was City however that illustrated this best, Mark Hughes explaining afterwards that "we talked about playing in their half and trying to stop situations that could develop and hurt us" and Ancelotti admitting "their tactics were a surprise for us. We have to work, to improve and when an opponent puts pressure on midfield we have to react and improve our play."
Even if they eventually manage that to the levels warranted, there is still a problem at set-pieces. An astonishing 15 of the 20 goals Chelsea have conceded in the league this season have come from dead balls . And this after Ancelotti endeavoured to settle the issue once and for all after the Aston Villa game last October.
John Terry's travails were pointed to as the source of the troubles on Wednesday but, in truth, his pending absence – in either mind or body – means the difficulties are likely to only be exacerbated. This is particularly true with Alex and suddenly Carvalho looking so distracted in defence. Ironically, despite Ancelotti's efforts to completely ignore Terry's troubles while England obsesses over them, there is a feeling among certain members of the squad his previous power as captain should be diluted as a result. Not all at Chelsea are enamoured by his domineering nature. Yet it is now, more than ever if they are to reclaim the title, that their defence needs his focus and demands.
Not that either should be too much of an issue today. Arsenal emphasise neither packing their midfield nor picking out men at set-pieces and Chelsea's main goal will have to be patiently impeding their movements, as at the Emirates. The only difference is they will be expected to come out and play a little more at home, potentially leaving themselves open to counter-attacks. Both sides, however, despite recent good runs, look surprisingly fragile at the moment. Despite that, Drogba made a point worth remembering back in December. And one that effectively sums up Chelsea's season so far.
"Our strength is that we are able to switch it on when it matters. Against United it was a really difficult game, but we still won it. Against Arsenal, every time we had a chance we took it. We know how to go through difficult periods. When the game is hard, when you get the chance it's even more important that you score."
That hugely admirable – and Mourinho-esque – resolve may well be enough today. But to win the title? Chelsea's main problem so far has been that they do it when they know it will matter but not when they think it won't. Ironically, as today's reverse fixture proved, it's the smaller walls Chelsea have to learn to batter if they are to do the same to Ferguson's title hopes.
mdelaney@tribune.ie
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Good article. Tribune does these sort of things well.