Pierre Garcon to be Super Bowl MVP 22-1

According to the nice people at ESPN, there are in or around 25,000 people in America whose first name is Pierre. If you take that as a percentage of the population, a bookmaker would say the odds of being named Pierre in America are around 125,000-1. Now, when you consider that only 1,600 players make it into the NFL every season and extrapolate this out, you find that the odds of being an NFL player named Pierre are somewhere in the region of 156,000,000-1. And yet, two players in tonight's Super Bowl are named Pierre. Mad world.

In light of these quite bewildering figures, it can probably be argued that odds of 22-1 about New Orleans Saints running back Pierre Thomas and Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Pierre Garcon being named the MVP of tonight's game are a little on the skinny side. But look at it another way – considering the odds both of them have beaten just to make it to the game, winning MVP should be almost routine.

Now, the reason, of course, that they're both available at 22-1 is that most folk just assume the quarter-back wins the MVP in the Super Bowl. And they're very often right to think so. But it hasn't been the case for the past two years and there's at least a small chance they won't be right this year.

Whereas Thomas has a reasonable chance given the almost complete absence of a Colts run defence, Garcon is definitely the better bet. For one thing, the Colts ought to win. For another, he was the stand-out performer in the AFC Championship game against the New York Jets so he has form going in. And finally – and this is a little ghoulish but it could also be the main reason he takes the award over Peyton Manning, on whose night his night depends – he is of Haitian descent. Both his parents emigrated to New York from Haiti and he has spent the past few weeks trying to locate family members. The Super Bowl loves a heart-warming story, after all.

Manning should win it, of course, but he's at best even money odds. Having a pop at 22-1 is so much more fun.