Top pick: Kauto Star is sure to dominate most punter's cards

Just like every other form of discretionary spending these days, recreational betting budgets have not been immune from the prevailing scarcities. Bookmaker and Tote revenues have plunged recently and with a cold winter and even colder budget fast approaching, the trend is sure to continue. That's the bad news.

The good news is that there is another option available that might provide some low cost enjoyment in front of the telly during the coming months. Friday at lunchtime is the cut off point for entry into the Totesports/The Racing Post sponsored National Hunt 'Ten to Follow' competition, an odyssey of guesswork, hope and skill that begins with next weekend's big Cheltenham meeting and concludes at the Grand National in April.

Entry costs a tenner sterling, which is not as much as it once was, and for that you could easily have a live accumulator that carries all the way through to next year's easter egg hunt. Last year's prize fund was over seven hundred grand, so the entry fee could well be worth the risk.

Its a simple competition. Pick 10 horses that you think will accumulate the most points over the winter based on the value and class of the races they win in either Britain and Ireland. Points are awarded based on the value of the race and the starting price of the horse, with bonus points dished out in fifteen pre-defined contests. The competition has accurately been described as the 'thinking man's lottery' because while it is essentially a game of chance, a little structured consideration in designing an entry considerably increases your chance of success. Start by at least partially observing the following six rules.

Entries should be biased towards horses that are likely to win high value and bonus races. A single Grade One win could bring more points than five scratchy novice hurdles, so don't spend too much time looking for horses that might complete low value sequences. It's too difficult and the reward is slight.

Pick more chasers than hurdlers. Eleven of the bonus races are over fences and the leading points scorer from last season, Madison Du Berlais, racked up a hundred and fifty one points by winning just three valuable chases.

Strike early. The Paddy Power Gold Cup next Saturday and The Hennessy a fortnight later are both bonus races and as they as are so close in, the winners are a little easier to predict. No list should be submitted that is without at least one live prospect in each of those contests.

Don't pick horses that are returning from serious injury. The oldest truism in racing is 'that they never come back,' and despite the advances in veterinary technology this still generally holds true. So no matter how much you might love a particular horse, if he's been unsound, then leave him out.

Diversify your picks between stables. Mid-season slumps are hard to predict, but they do come and if there are too many of your eggs in a single basket then dreams of windfall riches will quickly fade.

Swallow your nationalism. Just two of the top ten points scoring horses last season were trained in Ireland (Cooldine and Solwhit) and only a couple of the fifteen bonus races are staged here (Champion Hurdle and Hennessy). Assembling lists whilst wearing green tinted glasses will get you nowhere.

The next challenge is to decide on which 'type' of horse should be in your list. Following some exhaustive research in the bowels of the Sunday Tribune archives (ie, a quick flick through the last couple of winning entries) competitive lists should have at least one of the following: An improving long distance handicap chaser and a two mile hurdler, a staying hurdler, a two mile, middle distance and long distance chaser, a Grade One hurdler and a novice chaser.

So with all that hard work out of the way all that remains to do is to select the right horses, which should be a doddle as there are only four hundred to choose from. Get the rocket science out of the way first. Kauto Star, Hurricane Fly and Master Minded should all be included. All three are sound horses with relatively few miles on the clock and should all get to the track four or five times. Equally important, they are all fit and ready to run and will be seen out in the next couple of weeks. Kauto is preferred to Denman who still has to convincingly prove that he has fully recovered from last season's troubles and Hurricane Fly looks like he could carry his rivals and still win the Champion Hurdle.

Master Minded is a riskier pick as he looked like he was going stale at the end of last season and for that reason Big Zeb is also added to the list. If Colm Murphy has improved Zeb's jumping over the summer then he could easily hoover up most of the Irish Grade One two mile chases and mount a serious challenge to Master Minded in the Champion Chase, or move up in distance and win the Ryanair. He makes his reappearance in today's Fortia Chase at Navan, but don't get over-excited if he wins as it doesn't count in the competition.

Two handicap chasers are chosen that will hopefully provide a fast start, but also have the scope to keep improving throughout the season. Shining Gale, trained by Charlie Mann, has attracted some support in the Paddy Power Gold Cup next week following a decent seasonal reappearance at Ascot. He had good form last year on both good and soft ground over a variety of distances. If he is sharp enough to win the Cheltenham race then he could be even more progressive over longer trips. Killyglen, trained in Co Durham by Howard Johnson, easily beat Shining Gale at Aintree in the spring and is the pick for the Hennessy. If Denman turns up for the race, and it is still his stated target, then Killyglen should get in with about 10-5, a very raceable weight for a horse rated at 153 and as he has already had a pipe opener at Carlisle recently he should be as fit as a flea.

Big Bucks is an obvious, and unavoidable selection in the staying hurdler division. He was an easy winner of the World Hurdle last season and such is the size of his motor that if his stable didn't already have Denman and Kauto Star then he would probably be favourite for the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Paul Nicholls has reported him to be in rude good health and has already plotted a four race programme to take him back to Cheltenham starting at Newbury in a couple of weeks.

Trenchant, trained by Alan King, is a speculative choice to make some noise in the Handicap Hurdles. He was just below top class in the juvenile hurdle division last season but had decent form on soft and is as tough as an old boot. He could pop up in one of the big handicaps at a big price. The ninth, and final, piece of advice is Jim Dreaper's Notre Pere, who improved all last season and looks to have only Cooldine to fear in the top class Irish staying chases. He is the size of a house and needs the ground as heavy as it comes but looks young enough to keep on improving and could augment his tally in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

So why only nine recommendations for a 'ten to follow' list, you ask? C'mon – it was never going to be that easy! The payout is shared among the winners from a pool of the entry fees and there is one 'wildcard' horse out there that is going to make all the difference. We think we know who he is, but you're going to have to work it out for yourselves. Good luck!