Thrill of the chase: despite expensive purchases like Joleon Lescott Manchester City must improve their defensive record to secure a Champions League spot also coveted by Martin O'Neill and Harry Redknapp

Seasoned Harry Redknapp press conference attendees will know the drill at this point. After a match, the Tottenham manager comes into the room, answers the first few questions in a serious manner and then throws out a humourous, throw-away line to lighten the mood a little, perhaps to remind everyone present that they're talking about football, not genocide or world hunger.


He's a master at the throw-away line too; if 80 per cent of comedy is in the timing, Redknapp could change professions in a weekend. Last season he told the assembled press that he had merely instructed Roman Pavlyuchenko to "f**king run around a bit" when he sent him on to score the winner against Liverpool, while a match-winning performance by Heurelho Gomes last term was accompanied by a tale about how Redknapp wasn't sure whether the Brazilian's former goalkeeping coach at PSV "had been drinking" when he told him he had one of the best 'keepers in world football on his books.


After last week's game against Sunderland, however, at the juncture where Redknapp normally throws in a joke or two, he made a serious point instead. Talk, as it inevitably does these days, had turned to whether Tottenham could make the top four and Redknapp was emphatic. "There's no reason you can't do it," he declared. "No one has said you can't finish in the top four. Manchester City are right there and Aston Villa will be right there along with ourselves. The usual top four are very, very strong obviously but I think ourselves, Villa and City will be having a go between now and the end of the season. It can be done."


Redknapp's point was reinforced by the poverty of Liverpool's display against Birmingham City at Anfield last Monday. No matter how much Tottenham, Manchester City and Aston Villa strengthened their squads during the summer – and all three most certainly did – they always going to need one of the existing top four to struggle if any of the three were to break-up the cosy cartel. Now that condition would now seem to exist, leaving the Champions League door, if not quite wide open, then certainly swinging ajar.


You can be certain Mark Hughes was reminded of this by Manchester City's owner, Sheikh Mansour, when the two met in Abu Dhabi during the week. City have been on a tour of the Middle-Eastern state – with Stephen Ireland at the front of practically every photo opportunity given that every other City player is away on international duty – and the message not to screw up this opportunity has surely been imparted. Sheikh Mansour will believe that his side are best equipped of the three in contention to ultimately finish fourth, but in practice, as recent results have shown, that isn't necessarily true. Hughes has a number of issues to deal with in the coming months and whether he solves them or not will probably decide his team's fate.


The first concerns City's defence. Despite the expensive purchases of Kolo Toure, Joleon Lescott and Wayne Bridge, the team have conceded goals, not at an alarming rate, but with an alarming ease. You cannot avoid the feeling that Hughes should have kept hold of Richard Dunne and slipped him in beside one of his more talented but less reliable purchases at centre-half. Is there any chance this week, you think, that City's manager has been canvassing for £20million more to reinforce his back four during the January transfer window?


If Hughes hasn't been asking, he should have been but at least the club's other problems can be solved by time, not money. The manager still doesn't know what formation best suits his side, 4-4-2 or 4-3-3, or how to fit Stephen Ireland into this starting line-up, but all that will surely come over time. As will the fostering of some sort of team spirit within City's dressing room. At present, all the egos within the City squad need time to find their own niche amongst the many and varied personalities at the club. As much as his side's defensive problems, or tactical issues, how effectively Hughes facilitates, and accelerates, this process will go a long way towards determining City's season.


Over at Villa Park, meanwhile, there are no egos. And if there were, Martin O'Neill would stand toe-to-toe with their possessors and wrestle them to the ground, as he reportedly did with Nigel Reo-Coker a few months back. Aston Villa, therefore, are a team in the truest sense of the word and that's their real unique selling point in this race for fourth. Despite Gareth Barry's departure during the summer, they possess a stronger squad than they did last season and crucially, the players at the club know exactly what their manager wants from them. Villa either line-up in a 4-4-2 formation, when they're at their most attacking, or 4-5-1, when O'Neill is feeling a little anxious, but for the season that's in it, the manager's caution could prove to be his downfall.


It was noted on a football podcast during the week that the Irishman would put out a team that consisted of Brad Friedel in goal, John Carew up-front and nine James Milners if that were possible, and it's difficult to ignore the feeling that the manager is not much of a gambler. There will be games where Villa need to take risks and there is no certainty whatsoever that O'Neill is the kind of man to take them.


As for Tottenham, you get the sense that their biggest issue in breaching the top four could actually be gambling too much. Redknapp is from the "have a go" school of management, a manager not all that worried about clean sheets. One more goal than the other lot seems to suit him just fine. It has shown in his side's big games this season. Against both Chelsea at Stamford Bridge this season, and Manchester United at White Hart Lane, the manager has sent his side out with three up-front in attempt to either destroy their opponents or be destroyed trying. In both cases the latter happened but it doesn't seem to have altered Redknapp's attitude.


Anyway, as Redknapp perhaps realises, Tottenham's results against the likes of United, Chelsea and Arsenal don't really matter, because they are not competing for the same prize at his side. But it will be interesting to see if Tottenham are as gung-ho against Villa and City – who they play in the next four weeks – or Liverpool. Aside from the matter of blind ambition, Redknapp could also do with the rest of his players learning how to play with Peter Crouch. When the striker has played this season, they've either launched the ball up to him ad nausea, or, with that on their minds, ignored him completely. There is a middle ground with Crouch and when Tottenham find it, they'll be even more of a threat.


All told, there isn't much between the three sides as it stands but don't doubt for a second that the dismantling of the top four as we know it is most definitely on. Last season Arsenal finished fourth in the division with a tally of 72 points, suffering six defeats, just one more than Liverpool have recorded already this season. To make matters worse, Rafa Benitez's side have only played two of their six games against Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United so far this season, and just two of their six games against Tottenham, City and Villa. That's eight more games for Liverpool against top class opposition this season, and it's not unrealistic to suggest that the Reds will have reached 10 defeats by the season's end.


The three top-four challengers would all expect to stay below the double digit mark in terms of defeats between now and May, and all three are currently on target for posting points tallies of between 66 and 70. Everton claimed fourth place back in 2005 with 61 points, and quite a high tally of 13 defeats, but Arsenal's total of 68 points and eight defeats achieved back in 2007 is probably where this season's contenders will be aiming for come mid-May.


As Redknapp said, there's no reason why it can't be done. And he's not joking either.


ccronin@tribune.ie