All in the game: Giovanni Trapattoni's side is beginning to age

A little after 11am this morning in Warsaw's Palace of Culture and Science, Giovanni Trapattoni will be hoping one of his old players can do him a turn. Zbigniew Boniek played under Il Trap for three years at Juventus during the 1980s and while the Polish playmaker is best known for his abilities with his feet, Trapattoni will be hoping that he is capable of sleight of hand too. If Ireland are to at least knock on the door of another major finals, as they did in World Cup qualifying, they need the balls to fall kindly for them today. Hopefully Boniek and his cohorts on-stage can oblige.

In all, 51 teams will compete for 14 qualifying spots, with Poland and the Ukraine automatically taking the other two places as co-hosts. The teams will be drawn into six groups of six teams, and three groups of five, with the nine group winners qualifying directly for the finals, along with the best runner-up across all groups. Thereafter, the other eight runners-up will take part in a two-legged play-off to produce the final four qualifiers.

That latter route – the dreaded play-off – remains Ireland's best hope of making it to the first major football tournament to be hosted behind the old iron curtain. And for that to even be a possibility, Trapattoni and Ireland need a break this morning. There has been an optimism since the narrow play-off defeat to France that this Ireland side can take the next step and actually qualify. But truth is, that sentiment ignores the ageing nature of the squad and the fact that so many players are struggling to get game time for their clubs. Look at it this way: Ireland have no full-backs worthy of the title, a first-choice midfield partnership of Keith Andrews and Glenn Whelan who have barely played for their clubs since Paris, another midfielder in Steven Reid who will probably never regain previous form, a winger in Damien Duff who can no longer beat a man, another wide man in Aiden McGeady who has gone backwards in recent months, a back-up striker in Caleb Folan who is in the wilderness at Hull City and a captain and prime goal-getter who has taken the decision to practically retire from the cut and thrust of the Premier League rather than stick around and battle for a starting place with his club. Still optimistic?

But luckily, there are breaks to be had. How the seeds have been decided is relatively simple – the results of each country in qualifying for the 2006 World Cup and the tournament itself, the results from Euro 2008 qualifying and the tournament itself and the results from 2010 World Cup qualifying were totted up, plain and simple – but that system has thrown up some contradictions. Ireland are seeded third but they are placed higher in the FIFA rankings than three teams classified as second seeds, Turkey, Sweden and Romania. Therefore, were Trapattoni's side drawn in the same group as any one of this trio, they would become de facto second seeds. Which would be good news. You'd suggest that the 70-year-old wouldn't be shaking, either, were his side to face Switzerland or Slovakia, two of the weaker second seeds. Indeed, if Ireland were to avoid Serbia, Denmark, Greece or the Czech Republic, there wouldn't be too much for anybody to complain about.

To jump back a step and examine the top seeds, Croatia and Russia appear the most beatable going on recent form, while Portugal, given their recent qualifying record, wouldn't represent insurmountable opponents either. Even England, given the derby nature of two games between the countries, would represent a half-decent draw. Or France, when you take the Thierry Henry revenge factor into account. Still, all of the top seeds remain a level above Ireland in terms of quality and experience, and a whole host of stars would need to align for Trapattoni's to finish above any of them at the end of 10, or indeed eight, group matches.

As for the fourth seeds, there are some to be avoided. Slovenia, World Cup qualifiers, are one such country, while the presence of Wales in a group with Ireland could result in a similar kind of derby feel that a match-up with England might bring. Perhaps, too, Ireland would prefer to avoid Cyprus for a fourth successive qualifying campaign, if only because of what familiarity can breed. Further down, it's much of a muchness who Ireland end up being drawn with. In terms of the fifth seeds, Montenegro and Albania are probably best avoided but it wouldn't be a disaster were either to pop up in Ireland's group.

So, the best-case scenario? Croatia, Romania, Belarus, Liechtenstein and San Marino. And the worst? Spain, Serbia, Slovenia, Montenegro and Azerbijan. Keep the fingers crossed this morning that Mister Boniek can do us, and his former manager and mentor, a favour.

UEFA 2012 Draw, Live, RTE 2, 11.10am